The debate over Joe Biden’s future as the Democratic nominee for president has roiled party faithful in the two weeks since the incumbent’s poor performance in his first debate with former President Donald Trump. Can Biden reassure voters that he has the physical stamina and cognitive strength to defeat the Republican and serve a second term? Or should the Democrat who has held public office since 1973 step aside and let his party select a new, younger nominee?
Democratic consultant and former Kentucky Congressman Mike Ward acknowledges that Biden had a “bad night” back on June 27. But Ward contends Trump also performed poorly at the debate, yet he wonders why the media and pundits aren’t focused on that.
“It is very frustrating to watch that again and again,” says Ward. “Donald Trump’s able to get away... with murder in these things and we don’t’ talk about it.”
Former Louisville Metro Councilman David Tandy, another Democrat, agrees that Biden failed to deliver at the debate. But he argues that other incumbents have stumbled in their first debates and still won reelection, including President Ronald Reagan in 1984 and President Barack Obama in 2012. He says it’s hard for commanders-in-chief to suddenly shift into campaign mode.
While Democrats may be divided on Biden’s future now, Tandy contends they would unite around the president should he remain in the race, especially, he says, since the Republican opponent is an “existential threat” to the nation.
“Just because President Biden asked for the debate early and it didn’t pan out the way that he wanted it to be doesn’t mean that the game is over,” says Tandy. “So, we’ll go through this news cycle and then people will start to pay attention to what the issues are.”
Following the debate, Republicans questioned whether Biden’s performance points to deeper issues with the president’s health. Kentucky’s first district Congressman James Comer, a Republican who is the chair of the House Oversight Committee, stated on a Newsmax television program that he wants to hear from White House doctors about the president’s condition.
If Biden isn’t fit to stand for reelection, Tres Watson wonders if the president is even able to serve the remainder of his term. “Everyone has tiptoed around this for six months, a year or two,” says Watson, who is a GOP consultant former Republican Party of Kentucky spokesman. “Are they being honest with the American people about the health of the president, and I think that’s certainly in the purview of the oversight committee to ask that question.”
Rebecca Hartsough, a Republican lobbyist and senior policy director at Babbage Cofounder, says Biden had one goal in the first debate: convince Americans that he can successfully fulfill a second term. She argues the president failed to do that and is unlikely to get any better going forward.
“Yes, you can have a bad night,” says Hartsough. But she adds “every subsequent event after those, he continues to say things or do things that call it into more question.”
Who Might Be Waiting in the Wings for Democrats
So will Biden drop out, and if he does, who should replace him on the ticket?
Ward says every candidate declares they’re running until the moment they’re not. He argues Biden wants to do what’s best for the country, which is to beat Trump. But the question is whether Biden or another Democrat is more likely to achieve that.
“Frankly, if I had to bet, I think that President Biden will pass the torch to a new candidate,” says Ward.
If Biden does step aside, Tandy says elevating Vice President Kamala Harris is the simplest, most practical choice for Democrats, given that election day is 16 weeks away. He says the former senator from California has served Biden and the nation well.
“I think she’s done a very good job as vice president and will prove herself going forward,” says Tandy.
Watson believes Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro would be the toughest opponent for Trump, but he says Democrats are unlikely to tap him for the nomination should it come open. Watson agrees that Harris is the logical choice for Democrats, and he says any other candidate would expose rifts in the party and lead to a chaotic convention.
“She’s the only one that could make it through without, honestly, the Democratic Party embarrassing themselves on national TV,” Watson says.
If Harris or some other Democrat becomes the nominee, that could create an opening for a new vice president. Gov. Andy Beshear’s name has been floated in Democratic circles as a potential candidate. Ward says it’s good for Kentucky to be part of that national conversation, but he adds that he would be surprised if Beshear opted not to complete his current term as governor.
With Biden being 81 years old and Trump at 78, and many members of the House of Representatives and Senate in their 70s and 80s, Hartsough says Washington is in desperate need of “fresh blood and fresh ideas.”
“We need a generational change in both parties in terms of leadership and age in the candidates that we’re running,” says Hartsough.
But finding new people to seek office isn’t easy, given the expense and personal sacrifice of campaigning, not to mention the vitriol of modern American politics. Tandy says most people would rather complain about their elected leaders on social media than to enter politics themselves. Watson says that’s indicative of a deeper issue.
“Our politicians and our politics are a reflection of us,” Watson says. “If you want to complain about the atmosphere and the air of politics right now, you’ve got to look at yourself.”
Even so, Ward says there’s still reason to be cautiously optimistic.
“Let’s just remember we still have the greatest country in the world,” says Ward, “and we should thank our lucky stars that we do – as long as we can keep it.”
