1) It Will Likely Be a Few Days Before We Know Who Wins the Presidency
Former Republican Party of Kentucky spokesperson Steve Robertson says a winner might be declared by Friday. He says former President Donald Trump seems to have an edge in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while Vice President Kamala Harris could take Michigan and Wisconsin. But he adds that the races in those states are tight and could go either way.
Republican strategist Amy Wickliffe says Trump must win at least two of the blue-wall states as well as North Carolina to have any hope of winning reelection. As for the Democratic ticket, Wickliffe says Harris will need more than her base to take the presidency.
“We know that she is making gains in Republican women – suburban, educated, white women,” says Wickliffe. “But in your independent voters, I think there’s still some room for Trump to make some inroads there.”
Kentucky Democratic Party Chair Colmon Elridge says Harris has focused her closing arguments on turning the page from Trump and launching a new generation of leadership. He says Harris also continues to tout reproductive rights for women, improving infrastructure, and boosting the middle class.
“These are the things that the vice president has honed in on because they not only resonate with the people of America, but these are things that she knows how to get done,” says Elridge.
Robertson agrees that voters want to turn the page, but he contends that’s away from the policies of the Biden-Harris administration. He says inflation and the economy have been central to the former president’s closing arguments.
“There is a level of inflation in this country that’s just eating away at the wages that people are earning, any wage growth that’s been experienced,” says Robertson. “I think that Donald Trump is doing a really good job of talking about these pocketbook issues that people see every time they go into the grocery.”
But the idea that Americans were better off under the Trump administration is a myth, argues Democratic consultant Stuart Perelmuter. He says when Trump left office, the economy was in freefall and a million Americans had died from COVID. He says President Joe Biden and Vice President Harris stabilized the economy and brought record low unemployment and a booming stock market.
“Certainly, we’re in a much, much better place than we were four years ago,” says Perelmuter. “What will destroy this is the Trump tariffs that are promising to raise prices by as much as 20 percent in a very short amount of time.”
2) Candidates on Both Sides Need to Watch Their Rhetoric
Elridge contends it’s simply not normal to have a presidential candidate who is a convicted felon that incited an insurrection and regularly denigrates women and minority groups. But Wickliffe says Democrats are also guilty of harsh rhetoric, citing a recent recording of Biden suggesting Trump supporters are “garbage” and remarks by businessman Mark Cuban saying Trump is never around strong, intelligent women. She also points to a mailer sent by opponents of Republican state Rep. Stephanie Dietz that could be seen as inciting violence against the incumbent.
Elridge and Perelmuter contend the extent of the ugly and divisive rhetoric coming from Trump and his surrogates can’t be equated to the few missteps of Democrats.
“There’s always been inflammatory remarks in politics, and it is something we need to deal with,” says Perelmuter. “This is something different.”
Robertson says both sides need to be accountable for their rhetoric.
“People get caught up in the passions of campaigns on both sides,” says Robertson. “But there is a point where people maybe need to check it up a little bit and just not go as far.”
3) Control of Congress Is Also at Stake
Robertson says the U.S. Senate will be in Republican hands, pointing to expected victories by incumbent Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida. He also projects victories for Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia and, in Montana, businessman Tim Sheehy over incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.
He is less sanguine about the House of Representatives, which Robertson says will likely follow the outcome of the presidential race. But if the House does stay in Republican control, Robertson says Kentuckians will benefit with Congressman James Comer (KY-1) remaining as chair of the House Oversight Committee, and Rep. Andy Barr (KY-6) potentially rising to chair the Financial Services Committee and Rep. Brett Guthrie (KY-2) vying to helm the Energy and Commerce panel.
Elridge says he expects Democrats to win the House and Rep. Hakim Jeffries of New York to become the new Speaker. He predicts the “epic” ground game organized by the Harris campaign will help boost down-ballot Democrats to victory.
4) Amendment 2 Has a Steep Path to Passage
Some $16 million has been spent on the proposal to amend the Kentucky Constitution to let the General Assembly direct public tax dollars to private school tuitions. Elridge says Kentuckians realize the amendment is just another assault on public education by Frankfort Republicans.
“One of the reasons that it absolutely resonates is because folks understand the attack on local public schools,” says Elridge. “If Amendment 2 were to pass, it is a theft of dollars out of public schools at the local level. It is a loss of public school jobs at the local level.”
Robertson says he expects the amendment to fail, crediting the opposition with running a strong, if somewhat misleading, campaign against the proposal. Wickliffe adds that despite what many ads might say, the amendment doesn’t create any actual policy but simply allows lawmakers to discuss new options for primary and secondary education and how to fund it.
“Both sides on this campaign on Amendment 2 have stretched the truth a little bit,” says Wickliffe. “To say that passage of Amendment 2 will directly increase teacher pay is not accurate... But also passage of Amendment 2 does not set up a voucher program on Nov. 8.”
5) The State House Supermajority Might Get Bigger
Wickliffe says she is watching the House district 45 race in Lexington between Republican Thomas Jefferson and Democrat Adam Moore. She says Moore is running TV ads featuring conservative messages that would typically come from a GOP candidate. Elridge says Moore is telling voters that it’s possible to run as a Democrat but govern as a Kentuckian.
Other House races of interest to Republicans feature incumbents Rep. Susan Witten in Louisville’s House District 31, and Rep. Ken Fleming in House district 48 in portions of Jefferson and Oldham Counties. Robertson says Republicans could flip Democratic seats in House district 95 in parts of Pike and Floyd Counties currently held by Rep. Ashley Tackett Laferty; House district 38 in southwestern Jefferson County now held by Rep. Rachel Roarx, and House district 67, which is being vacated by Rep. Rachel Roberts.
Perelmuter predicts that Democrats could pick up as many as five state House seats. But Robertson says he expect Republicans to extend their House majority beyond their current 80 seats.
