With turnout in today’s primary elections expected to be as low as 10 to 15 percent, key state legislative races could be decided by a few hundred – or even a few dozen – votes. That’s left a number of popular incumbents in both the Republican and Democratic parties facing serious challenges just to make it to the November elections this year.
Kentucky Tonight previewed the more hotly contested primaries for the state Senate and House of Representatives on the ballot today. Host Renee Shaw spoke with Kentucky Democratic Party Executive Director Morgan Eaves, Republican consultant Iris Wilbur Glick, Democratic strategist Jared Smith, and Republican strategist Tres Watson.
A big storyline in this year’s primaries is whether so-called Liberty Republicans can continue to unseat traditional Republicans. Members of the more conservative faction stunned Republican leaders in the 2022 primaries by defeating three popular GOP incumbents who chaired legislative committees in Frankfort.
Watson, who has a political action committee that supports what he calls traditional, pro-business, small-government Republicans, says the Liberty faction is an odd mixture of far-right social conservatives with Libertarian leanings and a streak of populism. They also tend to reject compromise, say Watson and Glick,
“We have some candidates and some incumbents that… they’d rather prove a point than get something done,” says Glick.
“There’s room for discontent and there’s room for debate,” says Watson. “But when you’re opposing some of the signature pieces of legislation from your party in a given session, you’re going to make enemies in leadership.”
Some voters may cheer an iconoclastic lawmaker who wants shake things up in Frankfort, but Smith says they also need to evaluate what those Liberty representatives and senators have actually accomplished for their constituents.
“How much blacktop did they get for their districts? What economic development did they do?” asks Smith. “They don’t do anything because they don’t stand for anything. They just go there and rant and rave.”
While several Liberty candidates are on the ballot today, Watson doesn’t think enough will be elected to cause a change in Republican leadership in the House and Senate. But Eaves says even in small numbers, Liberty legislators can cause headaches for House Speaker David Osborne and Senate President Robert Stivers.
“The more Liberty folks win (today), the more you will see that disruption for the sake of disruption,” says Eaves. “They just want to be angry about something.”
Races to Watch
House District 30: The Democratic primary sees first-term Incumbent Rep. Daniel Grossberg squaring off against Mitra Subedi, an immigrant from Bhutan who teaches at Louisville’s Fern Creek High School. Smith says Subedi is popular in the community, and that Grossberg is taking the primary challenge seriously. He says Gov. Andy Beshear has endorsed Grossberg in this race to represent the central Jefferson County district.
House District 40: The Democratic primary features incumbent Rep. Nima Kulkarni against William Zeitz in the district comprising a portion of western Jefferson County. But the status of Kulkarni’s candidacy remains uncertain following a legal challenge filed by the man Kulkarni defeated to win the seat in 2018. Former state Rep. Dennis Horlander, a fellow Democrat, questions the validity of Kulkarni’s candidacy papers, saying one of the witnesses who signed her form was not a registered Democrat. The Kentucky Court of Appeals recently disqualified Kulkarni from the race, but the Kentucky Supreme Court intervened on Monday to say Kulkarni could remain on today’s ballot. However, the outcome of the race cannot be certified until the court decides the case sometime this summer. Smith says that creates a situation that is unfair for the candidates and voters. Regardless of the outcome of the case, he predicts Kulkarni will easily secure more votes than Zeitz.
House District 41: Current state Rep. Josie Raymond, Democrat, is leaving the House to run for Louisville Metro Council. The Democratic primary for the seat in central Jefferson County features Raymond’s predecessor, Mary Lou Marzian against Rick Adams. Marzian, who previously spent 28 years in the House, has name recognition and money, but Smith says she’s not spending any of it. He says Adams is a lawyer for the Kentucky Democratic Party who has fought to defend Louisville’s Fairness Ordinance.
House District 45: The Republican primary features incumbent Rep. Killian Timoney against Thomas Jefferson, who is associated with the Liberty wing of the GOP. The 45th includes portions of Fayette and Jessamine Counties. Timoney, a moderate Republican, drew the ire of some fellow Republicans for his vote against Senate Bill 150 from 2023 on transgender students. He also proposed legislation to ban slot-like machines called gray games. Watson, whose political action committee supports Timoney, says if Jefferson wins the primary, the largely suburban district could be at risk of flipping to the Democrats in November.
House District 47: The Republican primary pits incumbent Rep. Felicia Rabourn against Mark Gilkison in a district comprises Carroll, Henry, Owen, and Trimble Counties. Watson says Rabourn angered fellow Republicans by voting against this year’s Safer Kentucky Act and for not voting at all for the new state budget. She also proposed rule changes that would have made it easier for more liberal bills to come to a vote. Watson says Gilkison, a Bedford businessman, has run a strong campaign, has outraised Rabourn, and is benefitting from outside spending in the race.
House District 60: This Republican primary pits first-term Rep. Marianne Proctor against Christopher Pavese, a Navy veteran and electrical engineer. Watson says at issue in this race is the state’s Certificate of Need law which regulates the placement of health care facilities. He also says old political feuds in the Boone County district are also a dynamic in the contest.
House District 64: This Republican primary sees incumbent Rep. Kim Moser against realtor Karen Campbell. Watson says the challenge to the popular House Health Services Committee chair stems largely from lingering anger over COVID protocols and vaccination policies enacted by St. Elizabeth Healthcare in the Kenton County district.
House District 66: Incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Rawlings is leaving the Boone County district to run for the state Senate. Seeking to succeed him is former state Rep. C. Ed Massey and Liberty candidate T.J. Roberts. Glick says the race has gotten very personal with little discussion about critical issues for northern Kentucky like jobs, business attraction, and education. She says Boone County struggles with GOP turnout in primaries, which could favor the Liberty candidate. Watson describes the context as “a complete trainwreck” with no way of knowing who might win. Roberts has also faced allegations of antisemitism, which he denies.
House District 76: The race to succeed the state’s longest serving House member, Rep. Ruth Ann Palumbo of Lexington, features her son in the Democratic primary. Jamie Palumbo faces social worker Joshua Buckman and non-profit executive Anne Donworth. Smith says the campaign finance report for this race show contributions from a number of Democratic luminaries including former Gov. Steve Beshear, former Lexington Mayor and current state Transportation Secretary Jim Gray, and former state legislator Ernesto Scorsone. Smith says he expects Jamie Palumbo to succeed his mother in the central Fayette County district.
Senate District 1: In far western Kentucky, two-term incumbent Sen. Jason Howell faces a challenge from former state Rep. Lynn Beckler, who lost his House seat to redistricting. The unique feature of this Republican primary, according to Watson, is that Howell, who was first elected in 2021, has never faced a primary or general election opponent until now.
Senate District 7: Redistricting is also playing a role in the Republican primary for the district that now represents Anderson, Henry, and Shelby Counties as well as part of Jefferson County. Incumbent Adrienne Southworth of Lawrenceburg is facing two retired Navy SEALS from Shelby County: farmer and businessman Ed Gallrein, and businessowner and Liberty candidate Aaron Reed. Glick says Southworth, who has rankled Republican leadership, is the victim of “severe redistricting,” which left her with only her home county in her new district. With Shelby County being the most-populous county in the new district, Glick says Southworth is very vulnerable. Watson says Gallrein has spent heavily on his campaign, including making commercial buys on Lexington television. Watson also says he sees little chance for a Southworth victory in this primary.
Senate District 33: This West Louisville district sees former state Rep. Attica Scott challenging long-time incumbent Sen. Gerald Neal in the Democratic primary. Smith describes Scott as the “polar opposite” of the reserved Neal. He says the incumbent has done a great job for his district, but that he faces a tough challenge from Scott who is also a former Louisville Metro Council member. He says voters could see the age difference between the veteran Neal and the younger Scott as an opportunity for a changing of the political guard.
KET will have live results and analysis tonight starting at 8 p.m. Follow all the vote tallies at KET.org/election.
