With two new political polls released in the last 10 days, the panel on this weekend’s Comment on Kentucky had a wealth of data to crunch relating to several current and future elections.
In the U.S. Senate race, the Bluegrass Poll has incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell with a four-point advantage over Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes – but that lead is still within the survey’s margin of error.
John Stamper of the Lexington Herald-Leader says the poll has caution flags for both candidates. He says McConnell has built significant leads in the eastern and western parts of the commonwealth, and the senator has a 10-point advantage among male voters. The survey also shows one in four Democrats plan to vote for the Republican. But Stamper reports that the poll still shows McConnell with very low favorability ratings among voters.
As for Grimes, she has small leads over the senator in the state’s urban areas, and only a 1-point advantage among female voters. Stamper says Grimes’ standing among women is down from earlier polls, and it’s an area in which she must improve if the Democrat wants to keep the race close.
In the latest CNN/ORC International Poll, McConnell gets 50 percent while Grimes is at 46 percent. Ronnie Ellis of CNHI News Service says 50 percent is the magic number for incumbent politicians. But Ellis notes that this poll didn’t include Libertarian candidate David Patterson in the survey questions. The Bluegrass Poll does include Patterson, who pulls 5 percent of the vote. Ellis says Patterson seems to be drawing roughly equally from Republicans and Democrats.
Ads Go More Negative
The Bluegrass Poll was also conducted before McConnell campaign manager Jesse Benton resigned amid a bribery investigation concerning the 2012 election cycle. Benton has not been accused of any wrong-doing but an associate who worked with him on Ron Paul’s presidential campaign is implicated in illegal payments to an Iowa state senator.
Nick Storm of cn|2 says he’s waiting to see how quickly the Department of Justice investigation into the matter proceeds, and if Benton might be called before a grand jury. Storm says it’s only a matter of time before the Grimes camp launches ads attacking McConnell over the incident, especially given how hard McConnell has hit Grimes about the campaign bus she’s renting from a company owned by her father. Storm notes that Grimes is shifting away from the folksy ads with citizens asking pointed questions of the senator, and moving towards negative ads, including a new spot criticizing McConnell over his absences from Senate Agriculture Committee meetings.
Ronnie Ellis says the Benton incident plays into the narrative Grimes has pushed that McConnell is more interested in maintaining his power than helping Kentuckians keep their jobs. John Stamper says Grimes has suffered from a lack of focus to her messages. He describes the Democrat’s strategy as one of throwing things against a wall to see what sticks. Meanwhile, Stamper says, the McConnell camp continues to push their theme that President Obama and Sen. Harry Reid need Grimes, but Kentucky needs McConnell.
Troubling News for a Presidential Hopeful
The Bluegrass Poll asked potential voters if they thought Kentucky law should be changed to allow an individual to run for two federal offices simultaneously. The results were not good for Sen. Rand Paul, who is up for reelection in 2016 and who is seen as a likely presidential candidate that same year. John Stamper reports that 66 percent of those polled do not want the law changed so Paul could run for both offices.
What’s worse, according to Stamper, is that half of Republicans in the survey also oppose changing the law. He says that presents a significant problem for Paul, who may not be able to count on GOP state legislators to push for a new law in the next session of the General Assembly.
Stamper says the poll shows only 15 percent of Kentuckians think Paul should run for both offices. Simultaneous campaigns would also present logistical challenges for Paul, according to Stamper, because he would have to run a national campaign for president while also trying to ensure Kentucky voters want to keep him in the U.S. Senate.
Polling on Workplace Issues
Finally, the Bluegrass Poll asked respondents if they favor increasing the minimum wage and instituting a right-to-work law in the commonwealth. Fifty-five percent of Kentuckians say they approve both ideas. During the last legislative session, Democrats sponsored legislation to boost the minimum wage to $10.10 per hour, while Republicans promoted a right-to-work law to prevent employees from being forced to join a union or pay union dues.
The right-to-work issue is part of a new platform released last week by state Republicans called “Handshake with Kentucky.” The document is part of the GOP effort to convince voters to give them control of the Kentucky House this fall.
Ronnie Ellis says the Handshake platform also includes proposals to allow public-private partnerships for state infrastructure projects, a financial review of the Kentucky Teachers’ Retirement System, tax reforms aimed at making the commonwealth more business-friendly, and a study of Medicaid expansion.
One additional item in the Republican’s Handshake document calls for a constitutional amendment to make it illegal to force people to join a health care plan. Ronnie Ellis says he asked Rep. Jeff Hoover (R-Jamestown) whether that amounted to a nullification of the Affordable Care Act. He says Hoover responded, “I guess you could say that.”
–The opinions expressed on Comment on Kentucky and in this program synopsis are the responsibility of the participants and do not necessarily reflect those of KET.
