With less than a month until Election Day, the hotly contested race for U.S. Senate continues to intensify. The panel on this weekend’s Comment on Kentucky discussed a number of new developments in the campaign between incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell and Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.
After trailing in many recent polls, Kentucky Secretary of State Grimes retook the lead in the new Bluegrass Poll. The figures released last Monday show Grimes ahead of McConnell by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent. Libertarian David Patterson gets 3 percent, while undecided voters come in at 7 percent. (The margin of error is +/- 4 percent.)
John Cheves of the Lexington Herald-Leader says the poll shows Grimes maintaining her strong lead in Louisville and Lexington, and gaining some ground in the state’s rural areas. Grimes also expanded her lead among women voters, moving from 1 percent to 3 percent. The poll also indicates that 57 percent of Kentuckians think that McConnell has been in office too long. That’s a key argument in Grimes’ campaign against the incumbent.
While the Democrat trumpeted that good news, the poll also had more problematic data for Grimes. Cheves explains that more survey respondents believe Republicans would do a better job of running the U.S. Senate and dealing with foreign policy issues than would Democrats. He also says President Obama remains highly unpopular in the state: 55 percent of Kentuckians give him unfavorable marks, including nearly a third of Democrats.
Bumps in the Road to Victory
The survey took a backseat to several other stories that also appeared last week. First came the release of an undercover video showing Grimes campaign staff and supporters saying the Democrat is supporting the coal industry only to help get her elected. Lawrence Smith of WHAS-TV in Louisville says Grimes discounts the video made by conservative operative James O’Keefe because it does not represent her true views on coal.
Then later in the week, Grimes repeatedly declined to tell the editorial board of the Louisville Courier-Journal whom she voted for in the presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. Smith says that non-answer feeds the perception of some voters that Grimes avoids answering questions or gives responses that have been crafted by consultants.
But Grimes wasn’t the only candidate caught in an uncomfortable interview last week. McConnell surprised the host of Kentucky Sports Radio by calling the statewide show unannounced. Grimes appeared on the program earlier this month, and host Matt Jones had requested a similar appearance by McConnell. Lawrence Smith describes the 14-minute conversation between Jones and the Republican as testy and somewhat combative. Smith contends that feeds the perception that McConnell is not likable.
Big Money Follows Senate Candidates
Tom Loftus of the Louisville Courier-Journal reports that the effort to elect Kentucky’s senator has attracted campaign contributions from all 50 states and the District of Columbia for both candidates.
After a review of campaign finance reports, Loftus finds that 69 people on the Forbes 400 list of wealthiest Americans contributed to McConnell, while only 14 such individuals gave to Grimes. On the other hand, the Democrat has netted more contributions less than $200 than the Republican. She’s raised about $3.6 million in small donations, whereas he’s raised only about $1 million from low-level contributors.
Also, nearly a quarter of donations to the Grimes campaign comes from Kentuckians; about 12 percent of contributions to McConnell have come from within the state. Finally, McConnell nets significantly greater support from political action committees than does Grimes.
So far, Loftus says McConnell and his PACs have raised about $30 million for his reelection bid, and Grimes and her super PAC have secured nearly $12 million.
Focus Turns to Kentucky Tonight Candidate Forum
The neck-and-neck Senate race has made the one – and likely only – candidate face-to-face appearance a critical event for McConnell and Grimes. They will appear on KET’s Kentucky Tonight at 8 this evening. (A federal judge denied Libertarian candidate David Patterson’s request to participate in the program.)
Lawrence Smith says Grimes needs to avoid canned answers and present herself as informed, articulate, and thoughtful. He says McConnell must not be too forceful or over-bearing in his interactions with Grimes.
John Cheves concurs, saying McConnell will need to remain composed during the meeting, and not display any agitation with Grimes. Tom Loftus says the big goal for both candidates is to avoid any major gaffes in their presentations.
Campaign News from Other Races
The Senate race isn’t the only contest on this year’s ballot, plus contenders in next year’s governor’s race also continue to make news.
- Elisabeth Jensen, the Democratic challenger in the 6th Congressional District race, had a major shake-up in her campaign. On Thursday, Jensen lost nearly half of her paid staff when her campaign director, finance director, and field and political director abruptly left the organization. John Cheves says Jensen’s bid to unseat incumbent Rep. Andy Barr has struggled because it has not received financial support from the state and national Democratic Parties.
- Former Arkansas governor and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee will appear in Kentucky later this month to support Republicans running in state House races this November. A PAC called Kentucky Rise will present the rally at Louisville’s Bowman Field. That group is headed by Cathy Bailey, who is considered a possible Republican candidate for governor in 2015.
- Republican James Comer has raised about $540,000 for his gubernatorial campaign. Tom Loftus says that’s a very good fundraising start for the state agriculture commissioner. He explains that Comer’s donors include a number of big-name establishment Republicans in the commonwealth.
- Andy Beshear continues to raise significant funds for his 2015 campaign for state attorney general. Tom Loftus says Beshear is like his father, Gov. Steve Beshear, in that he’s a relentless fundraiser: the younger Beshear has held 86 fundraising events this year, netting more than $1 million.John Cheves says that many of Beshear’s donors are people who have benefited from gubernatorial appointments and state contracts under Gov. Beshear’s administration. He says Andy Beshear’s fundraising success may dissuade other Democrats from entering the race, including one frequently mentioned possibility, state House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Tilley of Hopkinsville.
State Budget Woes
After Gov. Beshear scrambled to make up a shortfall in the fiscal 2014 budget, new state revenue numbers for 2015 don’t look much better.
Tom Loftus says tax receipts for the first quarter of this fiscal year are up only 1.1 percent over the same period for last year. He says revenues will need to grow by 4.4 percent for the rest of the year for the state to make its projected budget. Receipts haven’t grown that sharply since before the 2008 recession.
If revenues continue to lag, Loftus expects Beshear to intervene in some fashion. But he says he doesn’t expect any action from the governor until after the November elections.
Watch the full Comment on Kentucky program for more on these issues as well as discussion about how the Affordable Care Act has impacted job growth in the commonwealth, and the state’s dispute with a religious group over its hiring practices.
–The opinions expressed on Comment on Kentucky and in this program synopsis are the responsibility of the participants and do not necessarily reflect those of KET.
